Commodity prices in a world of structural change
First published on: 17/3/2026
What drives commodity prices?
Recently, David Fyfe, Chief Economist from Argus Media, and Stewart Wallace, Zema Global’s Director of Data held a webinar to discuss what is driving commodity prices – fundamentals or geoeconomics.
Following that webinar, we have prepared a paper sharing their key insights on the role that data plays when navigating interdependencies and drivers.
Read on to find out more.
Commodity prices in a world of structural change
How structural shifts in trade, freight, and finance are redefining commodity risk—and why integrated risk, data, and scenario planning now define Decisioning Advantage.
Energy and commodity markets are entering a new structural phase in which interdependence remains high, but friction is rising everywhere. Global growth has downshifted. Geopolitical fragmentation complicates trade. Logistics are stretched.
Yet cross-border commodity flows continue to rise, not fall. The world is not de-globalizing; it is adding new layers of complexity and volatility at every step of the commodity value chain. Navigating this landscape requires integrated thinking, improved visibility, more adaptive hedging frameworks, and a strategic recognition that volatility is now the global baseline.
This white paper considers some of the key features of this emerging environment, explaining the macro reset, the rise of Asia as a center of demand, the resilience of the dollar system, the proliferation of friction in trade, the increasing strategic role of freight, and the implications for commodity risk management.
These changes are structural, not cyclical. They represent the defining challenge for risk and finance leaders across the energy and commodities value chain. Firms that expand their analytical range, integrate exposures, and embed scenario thinking will not only be better able to defend themselves against downside risks—they will gain a Decisioning Advantage in a system where friction itself becomes a source of opportunity.
Download the full White Paper below to explore this area in more detail.
If you haven't had a chance to yet, watch our joint webinar with Argus Media, titled 'Fundamentals or Geoeconomics: what's driving commodity prices?'.
